Gartner’s social software predictions for 2010 and beyond

Gartner recently released a set of predictions on the use of social software in the enterprise. If you are like most executives you can feel the pressure from your organization to become more social. If you are already a consumer of social applications you will probably be nodding your head in agreement.

I won’t analyze every prediction but rather focus on the ones that really caught my eye and will probably surprise most of our readers.

Prediction #1
“By 2014, social networking services will replace e-mail as the primary vehicle for interpersonal communications for 20 percent of business users.”

Today MySpace is the 4^th largest email provider beating out both Yahoo and Gmail. And Facebook recently announced a full-fledged email service, which will instantly make it the largest email provider in the world once launched.

“The rigid distinction between e-mail and social networks will erode. E-mail will take on many social attributes, such as contact brokering while social networks will develop richer e-mail capabilities,” said Matt Cain, research vice president at Gartner

My complaint with all the great social tools at my disposal is that they all live on different sites. Will there ever be one site to rule them all? I doubt it. But some are going to get very close. Facebook is going to have all of my friends, my live feeds, my photos, my chat client and soon email.

What will all this mean for your business? If you haven’t embraced social networking you need to start immediately. Otherwise you risk missing out on future sales, productivity improvements and valuable connections that can help drive your business forward.

Prediction #2
“By 2012, over 50 percent of enterprises will use activity streams that include microblogging, but stand-alone enterprise microblogging will have less than 5 percent penetration.”

The growth of Twitter has caused many vendors and enterprises to take notice. As more and more people consume information in 140 character bytes there is a natural desire to bring this capability in house. However, the idea that “Twitter-like” functionality will see the same success is a little mis-guided. A key part of Twitter’s success is the size of their network. With a small, enterprise focused network and the fact that the service will be purely business focused it will be challenging to get employees to adopt the replica vs. just using what they know and love, Twitter.

Prediction #3
“Through 2012, over 70 percent of IT-dominated social media initiatives will fail.”

Just as social software is causing the enterprise to reinvent how they work it is also disrupting the way IT departments operate. Business users are testing, using and adopting solutions with or without the help of IT.  The most successful IT groups will be those that partner with the business to better understand their needs and find ways to deliver solutions on their timelines. With so much of today’s software just a few mouse clicks away, all hosted in the cloud and managed off site there is almost no barrier to the business making their own decisions on what is best for them and their business process.

What do you think? Are you surprised by these predictions?